At the commodity level, farm, fishing, and intermediate food products, energy products, and metal ores and non-metallic minerals remained Canada’s top three export categories to China, together accounting for approximately 70% of total exports. A closer examination of the data, however, reveals a shift in their relative rankings: energy products advanced to the top position, while farm, fishing, and intermediate food products declined to third place.

Specifically, energy exports to China reached CAD 3.8 billion in the first half of 2025, an 81% increase from CAD 2 billion a year earlier. This surge aligns with the sustained rise in Canadian crude oil shipments to China following the commencement of operations on the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in May 2024. According to the University of Alberta’s China Institute, TMX crude exports to China have shown a strong upward trajectory in their first year of operation, rocketing from 25,040 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2024 to a record high of 353,674 bpd in March 2025. This trend underscores China’s growing recognition of Canada as a viable, competitive, and reliable alternative energy supplier, particularly as Beijing navigates trade negotiations with Washington and geopolitical headwinds stemming from U.S. restrictions on key energy exporters to China, including Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.

Meanwhile, Canadian agri-food exports to China declined sharply by 25% year-over-year, falling from CAD 4.5 billion in H1 2024 to CAD 3.4 billion in H1 2025. Exports of farm, fishing, and intermediate food products experienced a pronounced decline in May, falling by nearly half from CAD 679 million in April to CAD 366 million. The drop reflects the impact of China’s initial set of retaliatory tariffs imposed in late March in response to Canada’s earlier measures on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum.[1] These included 100% duties on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, as well as a 25% duty on seafood and pork.

Canadian canola exports to China have been among the hardest hit by Beijing’s tariff measures. Canola oil exports plunged from nearly 70,000 metric tonnes in February to zero in March, while canola meal exports fell from a high of about 196,000 metric tonnes in March to 113,000 in April, and further to 9,200 in May. In comparison, the impact of China’s 25% tariffs on Canadian seafood and pork has been relatively moderate. Live lobster exports, for example, declined from 887 metric tonnes to 629 in March and 423 in May, but subsequently rebounded strongly to 1,552 metric tonnes. Meanwhile, frozen pork cut exports  to China have followed a more gradual downward trajectory, slowing from a March peak of 8,828 metric tonnes to 6,767 by June.

Metal ores and non-metallic minerals retained its position as Canada’s second-largest commodity export category to China, expanding from CAD 2.1 billion in the first half of 2024 to CAD 3.7 billion in the same period of 2025—representing a 42% increase year-over-year. The surge was driven primarily by increased Chinese purchases of Canadian copper and iron ores, which reached approximately CAD 1.7 billion and CAD 1.5 billion, respectively.

China’s robust demand for copper reflects a confluence of factors. Domestic consumption remains strong, supported by increased orders from State Grid Corporation of China and heightened production of copper-intensive goods such as air-conditioning units and electric vehicles, both beneficiaries of government stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumer spending. At the same time, China has been replenishing its strategic reserves to enhance resilience in critical mineral supply chains amid rising energy-transition demand and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. As with crude, Canada’s reputation as a stable and reliable supplier positions it as an attractive partner for diversification within China’s procurement portfolio.

China’s demand for iron ore presents a more nuanced case. Despite weakness in China’s property sector and government pledges to curb excess steel capacity, imports of iron ore have remained resilient. Continued demand appears to be supported by China’s strength in machinery and electric vehicle manufacturing, which has partially offset weakness in the construction sector. These industries also remain relatively insulated from U.S. tariffs, as the majority of their exports are directed toward markets in Asia, Europe, South America, and Africa. However, the durability of this demand is uncertain as Beijing intensifies its efforts to curb overcapacity to alleviate deflationary pressures and preempt potential foreign tariffs on its exports.

Ranking fourth, exports of forestry products and building and packaging materials to China reached CAD 1.8 billion in the first half of 2025. However, this represented an 8% decline compared to the same period last year, reflecting weaker demand amid the ongoing downturn in China’s property market. Other commodity categories remained more modest in export value but exhibited notable variation in performance. Exports of electronic and electrical equipment and parts rose by 7%, metal and non-metallic mineral products by 20%, and industrial machinery, equipment, and parts by 39%. In contrast, exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts declined by 37%, while motor vehicles and parts fell by 29%. Exports of basic and industrial chemicals, plastics and rubber products, and consumer goods remained relatively stable, recording only modest growth of respectively 3% and 0.3%.

Canadian Imports from China

China continued to serve as one of Canada’s primary sourcing destinations in H1 2025. Canadian imports from China totalled CAD 48 billion, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. Overall, imports from China accounted for 12% of all Canadian imports in the first half of 2025, highlighting the country’s continued importance in Canada’s international trade portfolio.

At the commodity level, consumer goods remained the largest category of imports from China, totaling approximately CAD 15 billion in the first half of 2025. This segment accounted for roughly one third of all imports from China and recorded an 18% year-over-year increase. Electronic and electrical equipment and parts ranked second at CAD 10.3 billion, though imports in this category declined by 2% compared to the previous year. Industrial machinery, equipment, and parts placed third at CAD 6.5 billion, rising by 19% year-over-year. Together, these three categories represented 70% of Canada’s total imports from China.

Other commodity categories showed mixed performance. Imports of chemicals and plastics rose by 27%, forestry and building materials by 18%, while metals and motor vehicles respectively declined by 3% and 12%.

Provincial Trade with China

Trade patterns between Canadian provinces and China remained highly uneven in the first half of 2025. Ontario led all Canadian provinces by a wide margin, with two-way trade totaling CAD 26.3 billion—accounting for 43% of Canada’s total trade with China—followed by British Columbia at CAD 14.2 billion (23%), Quebec at CAD 9.5 billion (16%), and Alberta at CAD 6.6 billion (11%).

However, from a trade reliance standpoint, China’s share of each province’s total trade with the world was highest in British Columbia at 22%, followed by Nova Scotia at 9%, Quebec at 8%, Ontario at 7%, Saskatchewan at 6%, and Alberta at 6%

Among all Canadian provinces, Alberta recorded the strongest growth in trade with China, expanding by 29% year-over-year as crude oil shipments through the TMX pipeline reached new Chinese buyers. Quebec and Prince Edward Island also posted strong gains, with total trade rising nearly 20%, followed by British Columbia at 13% and Ontario at 7%. In contrast, agriculturally focused provinces in the Prairies and Atlantic regions—Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia—registered double-digit declines of 20%, 14%, 25%, 21%, and 7%, respectively, reflecting the impact of China’s retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola, peas, pork, and seafood introduced in March.

On the export side, British Columbia shipped CAD 5.1 billion in goods to China, accounting for roughly one-third of all Canadian provincial exports to the market. Alberta ranked second with CAD 4.0 billion (26%), followed by Quebec at CAD 2.2 billion, which overtook Saskatchewan as its exports fell to CAD 1.6 billion. Year over year, Alberta led all provinces with a 42% increase in export earnings, followed by Quebec (30%) and British Columbia (21%). In contrast, Saskatchewan and Manitoba posted declines of 26% and 32%, respectively, reflecting a downturn in Chinese demand for canola. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia also saw sharp contractions of 41% and 25%, respectively, amid weaker seafood demand following the imposition of Chinese tariffs. China now accounts for 19% of British Columbia’s total exports—making it the province most reliant on the Chinese market—followed by Nova Scotia (8%), Saskatchewan (7%), and Manitoba (5%).

On the import side, Ontario continued to serve as the primary gateway for Chinese goods, receiving CAD 24.8 billion—over half of Canada’s total imports from China—followed by British Columbia (CAD 9.0 billion), Quebec (CAD 7.3 billion), and Alberta (CAD 2.6 billion). Year-over-year import growth compared to the first half of 2024 was broadly positive across most provinces. Saskatchewan recorded the strongest increase at 30%, followed by Quebec (18%), Alberta (14%), British Columbia (8%), Ontario (7%), Nova Scotia (6%), and Manitoba (4%). China now accounts for nearly one-quarter of British Columbia’s total imports, approximately 14% of Alberta’s, 12% of Quebec’s, and 10% of Ontario’s.

Looking Ahead

The trajectory of Canada–China trade over the next six to twelve months will depend largely on whether Ottawa and Beijing can translate the diplomatic momentum built in recent months into tangible policy outcomes. There are grounds for optimism, as the path toward recalibrating and improving bilateral economic relations has been paved by Prime Minister Carney’s meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, alongside a series of recent and forthcoming high-level engagements including Foreign Minister Anand’s visit to Beijing.

Progress, however, is likely to be tempered in the lead-up to the forthcoming CUSMA review with the United States and Mexico, which has now entered the public consultation phase across all three parties. Washington’s increasing tendency to frame trade policy through a national security lens will constrain Ottawa’s flexibility in deepening economic engagement with China. As Prime Minister Carney noted in his address to the Council on Foreign Relations, a tiered engagement approach—one that enables deeper cooperation in certain sectors while maintaining guardrails and restrictions in more sensitive areas—is expected to shape the next phase of Canada–China economic relations.

Author

Peter Huang, Research Consultant, Canada China Business Council

Expert Reviewers

Mark Kruger, Senior Fellow, Yicai Research Institute; Senior Fellow, Centre for International Governance Innovation; Senior Fellow, China Institute, University of Alberta

Bijan Ahmadi, Executive Director & COO, Canada China Business Council

[1] Trade balance is measured on a balance of payments basis and seasonally adjusted.