China’s Economic Outlook: A Bright Future to be Expected
Today, various challenges are constantly intensifying, and various contradictions are becoming increasingly prominent. Facing multiple shocks of the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain challenges, and inflationary pressures, the global economic downturn goes on, and its vulnerabilities become more pronounced.
In stark contrast, China has shown outstanding performance among the major economies. In 2022, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) achieved 121 trillion yuan (about 18 trillion U.S. dollars ) with a 3% year-on-year growth, making it an important engine and stabilizing force in the world economic growth.
The confidence that China’s economy has a bright future comes from its clear goals of economic development. China’s 2023 Government Work Report states that the main projected targets for development this year are as follows:
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- GDP growth of around 5 percent;
- around 12 million new urban jobs;
- CPI increase of around 3 percent;
- steady increases in both the volume and quality of imports and exports;
- a basic equilibrium in the balance of payments;
- continued reductions in energy consumption per unit of GDP and in the discharge of major pollutants, with priority on controlling fossil fuel consumption; and
- steady improvements in the quality of the eco-environment.
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China’s economic growth goals send a positive signal to the world. Bloomberg commented that China’s economic growth target of about 5% will provide support for the global economy. An IMF analysis shows that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP growth in China leads to 0.3 percentage point increase in growth in other Asian economies. In the first two months of this year, the Chinese economy showed an encouraging momentum of rebound. Major indicators including consumption and investment picked up. Employment and prices were broadly stable. Market expectations improved notably. The manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50-point mark. Several international organizations have revised up their forecasts for China’s growth this year.
The confidence that China’s economy has a bright future comes from its correct direction of economic development. « High-quality development is the first and foremost task in building a modern socialist country in all respects. » This important assertion by General Secretary Xi Jinping clarifies the strategic positioning of high-quality development and points to the correct direction of China’s economic development. By focusing on promoting high-quality development, China’s Global Innovation Index ranking has risen from 34th in 2012 to 11th in 2022, successfully entering the ranks of major innovative countries. The pattern of coordinated regional development has been further optimized, and the share of permanent urban residents in the total population rose to 65.2 percent. Forest coverage has risen to 24 percent, fractional vegetation coverage on grasslands has surpassed 50 percent, and over 50 percent of all wetlands are now under protection. The list goes on and on. A Chinese proverb says, « there is consistent rule in governing a country, and bringing benefits to the people as its core. » High-quality development is ultimately aimed at the happiness and well-being of the people. The Chinese people are feeling the benefits of high-quality development in every aspect, including education and healthcare, ecological environment, social security and cultural lifestyle, etc.
The confidence that China’s economy has a bright future comes from its pragmatic economic development cooperation. China actively expanded global partnerships, worked to build an open world economy, safeguarded multilateralism, and promoted the building of a human community with a shared future. China deepened reform and opening up across the board in an effort to create a new pattern of development. China remained committed to opening up wider to the world and has achieved remarkable results: joint efforts to advance the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) made solid headway; China played its part for the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, which has created the world’s largest free trade zone. Today, the Chinese economy is deeply embedded into the world economy in all areas. China is the main trading partner of over 140 countries and regions. The World Openness Report 2022 shows that through the past 13 years, China’s ranking in the World Openness Index has moved up from the 62nd to the 39th out of 129 major economies of the world.
China’s development is inseparable from the world, and the world’s prosperity also needs China. The bright prospects of the Chinese economy also provide more opportunities for Canadian businesses. Several Canadian financial and business figures have recently stated that China’s economic growth is a clear positive factor for Canada and « fuel demand for Canada’s major exports, making a much-desired soft landing for the economy more likely than previously thought, with the Canadian dollar and Canadian stocks being major beneficiaries. » We sincerely hope that all sectors in Canada will actively participate in and promote the development of China-Canada relations, inject more positive energy into the bilateral relationship, and bring more tangible benefits to the people of both countries.