Executive Insight
The following Executive Insight has been prepared by the research team at the Canada China Business Council (CCBC). It examines how Canada–China commercial engagement is entering a more pragmatic and opportunity-oriented phase, shaped by renewed bilateral economic dialogue, shifting trade patterns, and the priorities set out in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. Drawing on CCBC’s 2025–2026 Business Survey, the 2025 Annual Trade Report, and China’s latest policy roadmap, this outlook identifies where Canadian strengths in food security, energy, clean technology, services, consumer goods, and advanced manufacturing align with China’s next stage of economic development. Its purpose is to support CCBC members planning and engagement as evolving policy openings create new windows for trade and investment.
Note: The full report is available exclusively to CCBC members. Please reach out to your Chapter Director or contact us directly to obtain a copy.
Executive Summary
The conditions for Canada-China business have entered a new, more pragmatic phase. The convergence of a recalibrated bilateral relationship, a structural shift in trade, and a clear Chinese policy roadmap through the 15th Five-Year Plan creates the most predictable environment for business in years. Greater market access, investment appetite, and policy space for Canadian and Chinese firms produce a durable foundation for strategic and targeted engagement.
Three indicators underpin this outlook. First, business sentiment has turned a decisive corner. CCBC’s 2025-2026 Business Survey shows that 82% of Canadian respondents view the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approach towards China as positive for business. More than two-thirds of Canadian respondents also plan to expand their business with or in China, and optimism for the future has more than doubled since the 2023 survey.
Second, trade flows are validating renewed confidence. CCBC’s 2025 Canada-China Trade Report records bilateral merchandise trade at a record C$124.09 billion, up 4.9% year-on-year. Canadian exports surged 13.8%, driven by a historic shift that saw energy and mineral commodities overtake agriculture as Canada’s leading export categories to China for the first time. According to Statistics Canada data analyzed by the trade report, early 2026 tariff suspensions cover approximately C$6.6 billion in agricultural and seafood exports.
Third, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan provides a clear demand blueprint. The plan prioritizes food security, energy security, the green transition, industrial modernization, as well as consumer livelihood and wellbeing. Amid global commodity market volatility and with upgrading domestic consumption a government priority, these are all domains where Canadian firms hold a competitive edge in products, services, and brand reputation.
Market and policy developments represent a clear path forward for re-engagement that is pragmatic, timely, and sustained. Sectoral opportunities will require an informed understanding of government priorities to harness momentum in the marketplace.